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Today, I will cut right to the chase… only to elaborate on why the premise of this article might be inconclusive or even wrong after all for the rest of this article.
In order to become an expert you need:
- A valid & structured environment
- Lots of repetition
- Timely feedback as soon as you performed an action
- Deliberate practice, which means practicing outside your comfort zone and at the edge of your ability
Why Being An Expert Doesn’t Matter In Most Cases
Political scientist Philip Tetlock selected 284 people who make their living providing commentary or advice on political and economic trends for an interesting study.
They included journalists, foreign policy specialists, economists, and intelligence analysts.
Over two decades, he pestered them with questions like:
Would George Bush be re-elected?
Would apartheid end peacefully in South Africa?
Would Quebec secede from Canada?
And would the .com bubble burst?
In each case, the experts rated the likelihood of several possible outcomes.
And by the end of the study, Tetlock had quantified 82,361 predictions.
